Thursday, February 19th, 2009 at 7:22 am
Futures are positive heading into the open. I am watching for a small bounce at the open and then a slow drift back to the red. The more traders talk about this Mortgage plan for the irresponsible the more they are becoming up in arms. Alot of people are in houses that shouldn’t be there. Maybe I just won’t pay my mortgage because it is a moral hazard. UNREAL….Rick Santelli had a great comment this morning. If printing TRILLIONS of dollars is so easy and beneficial because we get .5% back then why don’t we just print a Trillion per day and hand it all out to every American and make .5% forever? Gold is holding above 981 as it consolidates here more than likely for the final push towards 1000.
CONTINUING U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE, JUST SHORT OF 5-MILLION MARK. First time claims for state unemployment benefits were unchanged at 627,000 for the week ending Feb. 14.
The trend continues to be more and more job losses. Where pre-tell is the tax revenue the government is gonna need for this spending bill going to come from when people are jobless?
Wall Street Breakfast Link
Good Luck this morning
Wednesday, February 18th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
This is just the beginning folks. Helicopter Ben has just barely dipped into his bag of tricks. He will continue printing and printing and printing even if he encounters the types of headwinds encountered in 1930’s. Needless to say, expanding the Fed’s balance sheet is inflationary. The Federal Reserve chairman “Helicopter Ben” is employing the remedy he has long recommended, that a determined central banker can always reflate. Helicopter Ben obviously does not have a working model that is even close to working so he and his fellow morons are making this all up as they go!
In late 2008 the Federal Reserve turned up the printing presses on HIGH! Congressman Ron Paul, an advocate for a Gold-backed currency, wrote:
“The updated total bailout commitments add up to over $8 trillion now. This translates into a monetary base increase of 75 percent over the last two months. This money does not come from some rainy day fund tucked away in the budget somewhere – it is created from thin air, and devalues every dollar in circulation.”
Remember, it was inflation. Oh yes, year after year of hyperinflation in the 1970s that was the primary force of devaluing our USD and driving up the price of Gold. Now is the time to buy Gold as the ultimate hedge against the coming years of runaway inflation/hyperinflation. The 1000 POG number might be tough to bust through as it is a natural sell point for many. BUT, once we pull back I’d be buying the dip for a 12-24 month horizon and Gold to go to 1500.
Good Luck
Wednesday, February 18th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
The price of Oil is of major importance to today’s world economy, given that “Black Gold” is the largest internationally traded good, both in volume and value terms. Not too many people could have imagined a little over 5 months ago with crude oil trading at $147, that crude oil would have crashed by 75% and be threatening to break below $30 so soon. I am bullish on oil if we can reach $30, and have been looking to buy the dip soon. I think there’s bunch of money to be made on Oil’s rise. I plan to start by accumulating the oil ETF (USO).
The Oil glut can only last so long as drilling new holes will stop and old ones dry up. Mexico’s production is down and so are others. Eventually the supply side will be the driving factor in a increasing price. Getting long oil at $30 or less seams to be a sure bet if you have at least a 2+ year time horizon, it could be very productive.
As you know Oil likes a weak dollar and with all the “porkulous” packages coming out, we will soon get it. Once inflation starts to kick in, the price of Oil will start to rise. We may have to be patient for the next 12-16 months or so, but I believe an investment at these levels will be greatly rewarded with some patience.
Here is the WTI Futures
Feb. 2009 $40.83
Mar. 2009 $46.07
Apr. 2009 $49.11
May 2009 $51.21
Jun. 2009 $52.75
Good Luck
Wednesday, February 18th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
Gold continues its strong march toward 1000 today. As we speak here after lunch it just started a stronger move up with some increased volume. Gold’s strength in the recent days is particularly impressive as it comes in conjunction with a stronger dollar. We have been seeing the USD get stronger against most of the World’s major currencies the past few weeks. If you look at the large scope of things the fact still remains that the USD is the World’s reserve currency. You would be wise purchasing major gold producers and smaller precious metal companies as we continue our Gold Bull Run.
Interesting chart below
Wednesday, February 18th, 2009 at 9:30 am
The Obama administration on Wednesday unveiled a plan to help 9 million “at risk” homeowners modify their mortgages, committing $75 billion of taxpayer money to back the initiative.
Everyday just keeps getting better with this socialist President. Enough of stealing money from the responsible hard working Americans and giving them to the irresponsible, cheaters, bankers, car makers…STOP THE INSANITY.
90%+ of ALL mortgages in this country are current
Just Brilliant! Rather than disqualify people who could not afford the home in the first place. A practice that has worked for decades, now The “Savior” wants to adjust the price to your income. The consumer sets the price for the producer and we the taxpayer will pick up the difference. What a disgrace. OBAMA IS GOING TO DESTROY THIS COUNTRY AND ITS CURRENCY!
Here is an idea. How about lowering everyone’s rates -Across the board- by 2%, and if they still can’t pay their mortgage, they need to go into foreclosure. This can be solved this easily but they want to waste our tax money and rob us responsible citizens. It seems only fair to allow healthy homeowners to obtain lower rates. Why should only irresponsible people be afforded the option to secure lower payments?
Stay tuned I am sure the printing presses will continue to run at full speed!
It is a Blizzard of Bailouts and we have a President who inhales….how do I know…because whatever he is smokin’ I need some!
Wednesday, February 18th, 2009 at 8:20 am
This mornings futures are trading up a bit and are just above fair value. Markets are way oversold here so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bounce. I don’t think it will hold however and still think the trend is down. Trade lightly and watch for the always amusing Government news to move the markets one way or another.
Good Luck
Tuesday, February 17th, 2009 at 8:32 pm
Well the Markets did what they were supposed to do which was close at/near the lows. Market internals are horrific and their moving averages are way over sold. The volume picked up a bit towards the end of the day which suggests a lower open tomorrow. As we speak the overseas markets are getting hammered. No surprise there!
Here is an interesting chart of the S&P 500 from 1982. 819 is gone and I am convinced that if we take out the 750 lows we are headed for 640’s. NOT a pretty sight.
Here is the Dow from 1982. We are right at the November lows and if we fail here 7300 is the next stop with 6000 looming. Yes I said 6000.
Tuesday, February 17th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
Surprise, Surprise GM may need up to 30 Billion in additional Federal funding. GM said it could need up to $30 billion in emergency federal loans by 2011 in a worst-case scenario. The plan, which hinges on further concessions from its union workers and bondholders, aims to begin repaying the loans by 2012 and fully paying them off by 2017.
The average American will weather the storm just fine if things are allowed to run their normal course and the banks & businesses are allowed to fail. The biggest problem is that the elites will lose most everything and it is their relationship with the government that is the focal point of all this stimulus (PORKOLUS) and bailout crap. If they are allowed to fail most of the deadbeats in congress are out of work so I say FAIL!
Folks, you can’t make this stuff up! If the government does not make them go bankrupt than something is totally wrong with this picture. Since the election of the “SAVIOR” stocks have gone down 25% and Gold is screaming north. This is the true result of deregulated capitalism and greed!!! Now they want us the people to pay the bills. We should tell all these clowns to take a hike!
There is an election everyday in the Stock Market and the investors are voting two thumbs down. This is the inevitable result of bailouts and the culmination of moral hazard. OBAMA are you listening?
Tuesday, February 17th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
Yep you guessed it Chrysler just submitted an update on its viability plan to the U.S. Treasury, asking for an additional $2 billion in loans and cutting its industry sales target for 2009 to 10.1 million cars and trucks. This is additional to the 4 Billion they already have received from the Government. They are saying they will cut costs for 2009, ya right!
Chrysler is a privately held company for god sakes. If the parent company knows they can’t survive and won’t dump any more money into them, why the hell should the taxpayers? How much would it cost us to take over their retirement obligations? It has to be less than $6 billion, plus interest! If the Government would just say “Hell no”, they would have to fire sale the inventory of vehicles they have now. That would attract buyers. Everything needs to reprice lower to levels people can afford.
Stick a fork in em gang, Chrysler is done!!
Tuesday, February 17th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
John Malone’s Liberty Media has agreed to invest a total of $530 million in the the failing satellite radio company, allowing it to avoid a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.
Mel Karmazin, Sirius XM’s chief executive, said the deal enables his company to “develop the opportunities first outlined in the merger of Sirius and XM.” He added, in a statement, that the transaction strengthens Sirius XM’s capital structure and enhances its financial flexibility.
The fact of the matter is that the Sirius XM still has debt. Looking forward, there will still be payments and interest that will carry an impact to the bottom line. Should the company see successes and good cash flow, there is potential that Sirius XM can begin to retire debt. So now they MUST generate positive cash flow either this year, or early next year. Synergies need to step up, and contracts must be reworked. They have to be. They overpaid, and the other end of those contracts know this. I would not hold your breath!
Would they consider an R/S? While I think they might pull a R/S it might not be this year. RS 1-50 down to 600,000,000 shares would need them to issue 400,000,000 in 2012 to give Liberty 40% of float.
(That would still only be 25% of the current float)
Sirius XM still has an up hill battle but this lifeline from Liberty sure does improve their odds of surviving. (SIRI) traded up 53% to .16 per share.
