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Gold

Why the Feds Seized the Gold in 1933

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Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

The question of confiscation reappears every time gold rallies, from those with enough history to be able to throw out a few facts and sound plausible, but not enough grounding in history and the law to actually place them in any sort of reasonable context.

Below is a ‘reprise’ of a blog entry we posted early this year on the topic.

The Feds acted on gold because at the time it WAS the currency of the country, and the government had some proper claims on it. When the US left the gold standard it relinquished all such claims, as gold became purely private property. Except perhaps if you are holding gold American eagles, which bear the patina of ‘currency.’

It should also be noted that the sole action of the government was to ask for the gold, to withdraw convertibility of gold notes from the domestic public, and to monitor the activity of safe deposit boxes taking certain categories of gold, and essentially nothing else. There were no investigations, searches, or even active prosecutions for non-compliance.

The purpose of the confiscation was to prepare the way for a formal devaluation of the dollar while it was still on the gold standard.

Could the government try to confiscate the gold from private citizens again? Certainly. Although unless it is part of a return to the gold standard with adequate recompense, it would be little more than the theft of private property.

The government can also ask you to place an RFID chip in your head before you can buy anything or drive a car, ask for your children and place them in youth camps, bind you over to your creditors in indentured servitude, ask you to house homeland security troops in your home with no payment, and request your presence on a freight train for relocation to New Mexico.

There is a wide difference between what *could* be done, what is likely to be done, and what people might consider to be unreasonable enough to resist.

Talk of confiscation invariably occurs when gold rallies because it is a way for those who rode the rally to climb the wall of worry and those who missed the rally to feel better about their lost opportunity.

The Last Time the Feds Devalued the Dollar to Save the Banks
14 January 2009

We dipped once again into the Federal Reserve Bulletin Publication from June, 1934 to take a closer look at the growth of the monetary base, and found an interesting graphic that shows the accounting for the January 1934 devaluation of the dollar and the subsequent result on Bank Reserves in the Federal Reserve System.

As you will recall, the Gold Act, or more properly Executive Order 6102 of April 5, 1933, required Americans to surrender their gold coinage and certificates to the Federal Reserve Banks by May 1, 1933. There were no prosecutions for non-compliance except one benchmark case which was brought voluntarily by a person who wished to challenge the act in court.

After a substantial portion of the gold was turned in by US citizens and taken from their bank based safe deposit boxes, the government officially devalued the dollar from 20.67 to 35.00 per ounce in the Gold Reserve Act of January 31, 1934.

The proceeds from this devaluation were used to provide a significant boost to the Federal Reserve member bank positions as shown in the first chart below.

The inflation visited on the American people because of this action helped to take the CPI as it was then measured up 1200 basis points from about -8% to +4% by the end of 1933. To somewhat offset the monetary inflation the Fed also contracted the Monetary Base which served the nascent recovery in the real economy rather poorly and is viewed widely as one of a series of policy errors.

Considering that the actions did little for the employment situation this was painful medicine indeed to those who were dependent on wages.

reserve bank credit and related items

Fortunately at the same time FDR was initiating the New Deal programs which, despite continual opposition from a Republican minority in Congress, managed to provide a small measure of relief for the 20+% public that was suffering from unemployment and wage stagnation.

People ask frequently “Will the government seize gold again?”

While there is no certainty involved in anything if a government begins to overturn the law and seize private property, one has to ask for the context and details first to understand what happened and why, to understand the precedent.

Technically, the government did not engage in a pure seize of private property, since at that time the US was on the gold standard, and much of the gold holdings of US citizens were in the form of gold coinage and certificates.

Governments always make the case that the currency is their property and that the user is merely holding it as a medium of exchange. The foundation of the argument was that the government required to recall its gold to strengthen the backing of the US dollar against the net outflows of gold for international trade. The devaluation helped with this as well, since dollars brought less gold for trade balances.

People also ask, “Why didn’t the government just revalue the dollar without trying to recall all the gold from the American public?”

The answer would seem to be that this would have been more just, more equitable recompense for the public. The Treasury could have purchased gold from the public to support its foreign trade needs.

But it would have left much less liquidity for the banks.

One can make a better case that the recall of the gold, with the subsequent revaluation to benefit a small segment of the population in the Banks, was a form of seizure of wealth without due compensation. Hence the lack of active prosecutions.

So, will the government take back gold again to save the banks by devaluing the dollar?

Highly unlikely, because they not only do not need to this, since the dollar is no longer backed by gold, and is a form of secular property except perhaps for gold eagles, but they do not have to, because they are devaluing the dollar already to save the banks.

This time the confiscation of wealth to save the banks is called TARP.

If one thinks about it, US Dollars are being created and provided directly to the banks to boost their free reserves significantly, at a scale comparable and beyond to 1933-34.

The confiscation of wealth is being spread among all holders of US dollars and dollar assets, foreign and domestic, in the more subtle form of monetary inflation.

Granted, the government must be more opaque to mask their actions in order to sustain confidence in the dollar while the devaluation occurs, but this is exactly what is happening, and all that is required to happen in a fiat regime.

There is no need to seize widely held exogenous commodities like gold and oil, but merely dampen any bellwether signals that a significant devaluation of the dollar is once gain being perpetrated on the American people in order to save the banks.

Its fascinating to look carefully at this next chart below.

Monetary gold in the US

First, notice the big drop in gold in circulation of 9.8 million ounces, or roughly 36% of the measured inventory at the end of 1932. Think someone was front-running the dollar devaluation? We suspect that the order went out to start pulling in the gold stock to the banks.

The reduction in gold in circulation AFTER the announcement of the Gold Act in April would be about 3.9 million ounces, or roughly 22% of the gold remaining in circulation in March 1933.

Considering that all gold coinage held by banks in the vaults was automatically seized, the voluntary compliance rate is not all that impressive. We are not sure how much of this was being held in overseas hands by non-US entities.

But beyond a doubt, there was a unjust, if not illegal, seizure of wealth by requiring citizen to turn in their gold to the banks, which was then revalued at the beginning of 1934 by 69% from 20.67 to 35 dollars.

It would have been much more equitable to devalue the dollar and to change the basis for dollar/gold first, before requiring private citizens to surrender their holdings. But of course, this would have lessened the liquidity available for direct infusion into the Federal Reserve banks.

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The Reason Why Gold Hasn’t Skyrocketed

With the printing presses in full printing mode, many people are questioning why gold prices haven’t gone higher – much higher.

In Adam Hewison’s new video, He explains some of the subtle market cycles that are at play right now in this market. These short-term cycles have been the dominant force in gold all year and appear to be still in control of price action.

He believes the longer-term upward trend in gold is very much intact; short-term we could see more of a trading range that has a downward bias.

Click The Chart Below To View The Video

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What the Heck Is Going on with China?

By Doug Hornig, Sr. Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report

That’s a question that Westerners have been asking for, oh, several millennia now. Or at least since Marco Polo aimed his ponies down the old Silk Road in 1271.

Now as then, China keeps its own counsel. We know what they want us to know, plus what we can surmise from rumor and reading between the lines. But lately, we’ve been able to add presumption to news and come up with something that looks very significant.

Specifically, there’s been a flood of tantalizing stories out of the East that, taken together, strongly suggest a growing preoccupation with a form of money that was ancient even in Signor Polo’s time. And it ain’t silk. It’s gold.

We already learned, back in April, that China has been salting away bullion for the previous six years, out of sight of international gold watchers. To the tune of 14.6 million ounces. Now the evidence suggests that that was merely the prologue.

Let’s take these tidbits one at a time:q

Sovereign wealth fund dumping $$ for gold? This one is still at the rumor stage, but highly-respected website Mineweb.com is supporting it (http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page67?oid=88400&sn=Detail). What we know for sure is that the country founded its primary sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corporation (CIC), two years ago, with the stated aim of rapidly deploying some of its $1.5 trillion forex surpluses – $200 billion initially, with another $100 billion recently added to the kitty – into investment in non-Chinese enterprises. This it has been doing in spades, acquiring businesses around the globe. Extractive industries are among them, including Teck Corp., the diversified Canadian mining giant.

Might it also be buying up gold? We don’t know that for sure, but it seems likely. And, in addition, rumors sneaking off the mainland indicate that within the CIC, a lot of effort is being poured into prospective investment deals in the oil and precious metals sectors. The more it produces, the more it can keep.

The Chinese have made no secret of their disdain for current American economic policy and what they see as the inevitable destruction of the dollar. That they would be moving to diversify out of the greenback shocks precisely no one, and gold is one logical landing place for all those bucks. We suspect that’s exactly what is happening, behind the scenes as well as center stage.

Gold and silver pushed to the people. As recently as 2002, the private ownership of gold was prohibited in China. You could be jailed if caught with any in your possession. Beginning in 2009, in a stunning about-face, the central government removed all restrictions. In fact, as Mineweb and other sources report now it’s actively pushing folks to buy some personal metal, with China’s Central Television, the main state-owned television company, running news programs cum infomercials, letting the public know just how easy it is to purchase gold and silver as an investment.

It truly is as simple as can be, because every bank sells gold and silver bullion bars in four different sizes to individuals. (Try to find the same the next time you make the trek down to Wells Fargo.) Mining companies are reportedly encouraging employees to convert some of their wages to gold on payday. Gold is traded in some form 24 hours a day. And paper proxies for the metal are also soaring in popularity.

There are persistent rumors that the export of silver has already been banned. Gold could be next.

Thus China, which only yesterday was the lowest per-capita consumer of gold in the world, is bidding to become the biggest. Some analysts believe it will pass India – the top dog since forever – as early as 2010. Clearly, the government believes the country is strengthened if everyone who can holds some hard currency.

All this suggests a mania in the making, and only in the formative stage. Imagine if hundreds of millions of new consumers climb on that particular bandwagon…

China repatriates its bullion. Meanwhile, in early September numerous sources (see, e.g.: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong-recalls-gold-reserves-from-london-2009-09-03) reported an announcement that Hong Kong is pulling all its physical gold holdings from depositories in London and transferring them to a newly built, high-security depository at the city’s airport.

That means the government is backing the promotion of Hong Kong to a more formidable status as a Swiss-style, regional trading hub for bullion, at the same time as it reduces London’s role as a key settlement and storage center.

Press reports cited government officials as saying that marketing efforts will be launched to convince Asian central banks to transfer their gold reserves to the Hong Kong facility. Outreach will also be made to commodity exchanges, banks, precious metals refiners and ETF providers.

There can be little doubt this signals that the Chinese government fully recognizes the importance of gold in a time of crisis, and that the most prudent plan involves keeping its stores close at hand.

China threatens to “just walk away.” In one of the year’s most intriguing developments, commodity and derivative markets were thrown into a tizzy on Monday, August 31, by the worldwide circulation of a story published two days earlier in Caijing magazine (and reported by Reuters here: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong-recalls-gold-reserves-from-london-2009-09-03).

According to the Caijing article, a spokesperson for China’s state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission – the regulator and nominal shareholder for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) – told six foreign banks that SOEs reserve the right to default on contracts.

Say what?

Maybe the commission has been paying attention to the “just walk away” forfeiture movement that blossomed among American homeowners whose overall debt on their properties far exceeded the assessed value.

Small wonder there was panic in trading houses that hold a lot of Chinese paper. They hope any problems will be worked out short of a default. In fact, “It’s [only] a handful of companies who are being encouraged by regulators to ‘re-negotiate’,” says one banking source. “It’s outrageous, but it’s China, so everyone is treading very carefully.” Very carefully.

Nevertheless, in addition to tangible losses, those potentially affected fear the establishment of a dangerous precedent, one that could lead to utter chaos in the enormous, tangled world of derivatives.

And there is one other, albeit highly speculative, possibility. Some major entities – we don’t know who, due to the opaque nature of international gold trading – have huge, perhaps quite concentrated short positions in the metal, both on the COMEX and OTC market. Is one of them China, acting through American intermediary banks?

A short position in precious metals means that the initiator of that position is obligated to deliver physical gold or silver if the buyer (who holds the long end) wants it. Suppose China is one of the big shorts. Suppose it’s been playing the market in order to buy at what it sees as bargain prices. Now suppose a gold rally induces it to just walk away from all those obligations to deliver. Who’s going to force it to make good? Guess what, no one has a gun large enough.

Granted, it’s an outlandish scenario. But impossible? No. Beijing has shown nothing but indifference to what others think of it. And if the dollar does crap out as the world’s reserve currency, there’s nothing to say that China won’t see its self-interest as lying in a completely new direction.

Conclusion. Gold, and the companies that produce it, have enjoyed a brisk runup of late, as the metal mounts yet another assault on the beckoning, symbolic $1,000 level. How much of this can be traced to what China has done, is doing, or may yet do?

We don’t know, but we suspect it’s not entirely coincidental. All rumor and speculation aside, as China clearly turns more and more bullish on gold, so will everyone else.

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Market Club Gold Update – HOT on Gold

I wanted to update everyone on the current Trade Triangle and GOLD situation…if you have any questions please feel free to head over to The Market Club Trader’s Blog and join in on the Gold chat. It is FREE.

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New Video: Gold: Is this the move we have been waiting for?

I believe the action in gold yesterday (Wednesday) should be looked at seriously as it pushes the gold market to its best level in almost 3 months. Click The Chart Below To Watch The Video

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So What’s Behind Moves In Gold?

gold-etf-727503

Courtesy of Mish

In response to How Will China Handle The Yuan? I received many emails regarding a single statement I made: “Prechter, who does not view gold as money, thinks gold will collapse. Thus, not all deflationists think alike.”

The first half of that statement “Prechter, who does not view gold as money” is an inaccurate representation of Prechter’s views.

Inquiring minds pointed out that the title of Chapter 1 in Prechter’s Gold and Silver E-Book (a publication you can download for free) is “Gold Is Still Money“.

Apologies go to Robert Prechter.

That out of the way, there are many things worthy of discussion from the same eBook. Please consider the following image snip.

From the chapter: Does Gold Always Go Up In Recessions and Depressions?

Click On Image To Read Text

When Does Gold Act Like Money?

While Prechter states “gold is still money“, the above paragraph shows that he thinks gold acts differently when “gold is officially money“.

On the other hand, I think gold is money and gold acts like it as well, regardless of whether or not governments make it “official“. Please see Misconceptions about Gold for a detailed explanation.

In the eBook, Prechter notes “All the huge gains in gold have come when the economy was expanding”.

That is a true statement. However, this is a true statement as well: “All the huge losses in gold have come when the economy was expanding.”

Please consider the following charts.

Gold 1980 To 1988

$GOLD

click on chart for sharper image

Gold 1988 – 2000

Instead of asking “Does Gold Always Go Up In Recessions and Depressions?” one could easily ask “Does Gold Always Go Up In Expansions?”

Gold does not always do anything. However, given that recessions make up minimal periods from 1980 through 2000, this is an accurate representation of the period.

Gold 1980 – 2000

click on chart for sharper image

Gold collapsed from over $850 to just above $250 during one of the biggest expansionary periods in history. That is the reality and the charts show it perfectly well. Thus the statement “all of gold’s gains were in expansions” is very misleading, at best.

What’s Behind Moves In Gold?

1) What was behind gold’s move in the Great Depression?
2) What was behind gold soaring to $850 in the 80’s?
3) What is behind gold collapsing to $250?
4) What is behind gold soaring again now?

Clearly it is not expansion or contraction driving the price of gold, but rather something else. That “something else” is credit issues.

The great depression sported a massive contraction in credit. Gold rose by force when Roosevelt confiscated, and re-pegged it. Nixon taking the US off the gold standard was also a massive credit event. The difference is that gold, allowed to float, soared.

From the $850 high, gold then plunged to $250 even though there was inflation every step of the way. What happened? Credit fears collapsed. Psychology changed (more on psychology and attitudes below). Moreover, gold’s reaction to Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) was a big yawn suggesting that the crisis would be contained.

In general, Gold, like Fiat money does poorly when economic conditions are generally rosy, credit worries are non-existent, and interest rates are falling. In simple terms, cash (and gold) are trash, and assets are where you want to be. Free to float, gold is apt to do worse as Prechter notes.

In 2002 when Greenspan stepped on the gas to fight deflation. Gold started reacting in advance to the pending credit event, an event that blew sky high in 2008. Gold’s reaction now suggests the crisis is still not over.

In the early 30’s even before Roosevelt stole the citizens’ gold, it value in relative terms soared, just as one would expect.

This go around, gold sunk in the initial credit collapse as leverage everywhere was forcibly repudiated. Unlike other commodities however, gold quickly regained its composure, as I surmised.

Email Exchange With Robert Prechter

I had an email exchange with Prechter on August 12 regarding my post Social Safety Nets Mask The Deflationary Depression and his video “Dollar’s Hit A Major Bottom” in which he notes that a deflationary depression is coming.

Mish to RP: You are looking for a “major economic depression”. I think it is clear we are already in one.

The only reason it is not more readily visible is people are living in foreclosed houses unable or unwilling to pay their mortgage, one in nine living in the US is on food stamps, and unemployment insurance has been extended twice. Congress is now debating extending it a third time.

RP to Mish: Hi Mike,
By all means we are in a depression. It began in July 1999 and is a long way from the bottom.
RP

If the depression began in 1999 then the “gold does well in deflation” camp is clearly winning the debate!

Regardless, this depression has been one massive credit event of epic proportions. It should be no surprise that gold has been rising.

Not all recessions are made alike, nor are all deflations. Certainly Japan was in deflation and the price of gold dropped, but Japan, in comparison to the rest of the world was a small piece of the pie, not enough to influence the price of gold in and of itself in a healthy global economy. Thus it is also important to understand the context of deflation in the global economy.

One final point: Gold does well in “real” terms during deflations. It can do better in nominal terms at other times. “Real” means purchasing power of what it buys.

Praise For Prechter

Tossing aside a difference of opinion on gold, I praise Robert Prechter as a pioneer and a visionary. His views on deflation, although famously early, paved the way for others.

Moreover, I am extremely fond of his theory that shifts in social mood lead the markets, not the other way around.

Housing is a good example. Most still believe consumer attitudes have fallen because the stock market is down and/or because housing is down. The reality is attitudes changed first.

In summer of 2005, people were camping out overnight in Florida hoping to be one of “the lucky ones” to secure a deal on a condo. A few weeks later the lines were gone. Prices did not drop significantly for a year.

What happened?

Attitudes changed first, then prices eventually followed. Once attitudes changed, the party was over.

A common applicable statement is “The Pool Of Greater Fools Ran Out”.

Prechter’s Elliott Wave theory is also based on patterns of attitudes, that things play out in waves, finally ending in trend exhaustion.

It’s easy to be critical of economic pioneers because they are frequently early. That should not get in the way of giving credit where credit is due.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Seasonal Gold Chart

Here’s the seasonal chart below.

Gold spot Trading

We can see that we are at a key time for the gold seasonal.  Lows are usually made right at the end of August.  Interestingly, we are only about 30 dollars above the July lows, and the choppiness we’ve seen in gold is actually what the seasonal suggests this time of year.  What’s important for gold is what lies in front of us.  September.  You can see that a nice rally usually develops from somewhere in this time frame.  The “optimum” time is about to arrive.  Like the other commodities gold also went to the barber shop last fall.  But unlike all other commodities, gold has returned to its highs……….a real sign of strength so far.  I say so far because we must also conclude that gold has not made a new high for 18 plus months.  Many are anticipating a tremendous rally should the highs succumb to price.

Gold spot Newsletter

If the seasonal plays out then a rally is due to begin within two weeks and a September rally will ensue.  One needs be careful however, as the metals are also well known for pullbacks in the October and November time frames.  When gold is very strong it will bypass or only pullback slightly then and move into its winter peaks.  However, in a normal year, gold has a decent pullback in that time period (Oct/Nov) as well.

The tremendous consolidation and current coiling action in gold makes us sure of one thing.  A good sized move is coming up.  I’ve drawn two key trend lines on the weekly chart above.  As long as we are above those up channel lines, we should assume a fall rally.   The end of August is notorious for a steep drop and reversal for gold.  Keep your eyes open.  Should there be a big thrust down towards the lower channel lines on the chart above, and then a subsequent reversal and turnaround back up in early September, then the odds will greatly increase that the fall rally is under way.

On the upside, traders and technicians are looking at this triangle formation that has developed on the chart.  Moves above the 975-985 area would greatly favor an upside breakout and moves above the 1075-1100 would be indicative that the next leg of the gold market has begun.

Conclusions

The gold market is close to starting a good move.  Many participants are expecting an upside breakout.  While that may well be the case, make sure you keep your eyes on the downside too.  The “inflation” scenario is a crowded one and the dollar bull is a rare specie at this time.  While I won’t argue the inflation point, I want to see price confirm such an occurrence.

On the chart there are two channels that are PARAMOUNT to an uptrend support.  There is also a blue horizontal line showing support at the 850 level.  Should we begin to break these red trend lines, especially the lower one, it will be a warning to gold bulls that all is not right underneath.  This is especially important this time of the year as gold is usually strong after August.  Should a drop occur in the next few weeks that hold’s any of these support areas, it just might end up being the low before the fall rally.  However, any break of the 850 area would be a warning shot across the bow that gold’s seasonal move would be in serious trouble.  So keep your eyes on the 850 – 880 – and 925 area in gold.

If these support areas hold and gold breaks above the triangle lines and 975- 985, the upside will be the odds favored move in the coming months.

Crude, Gas, and Gold Seasonal Update

oil-hands-tbi-049x0491

Courtesy of Bill Downey

Commodity speculators and investors (women excluded) can learn a lot by observing the purchasing habits of the “woman of the house.”  Obviously it’s not in all cases, and the statement is a generalization of the observations that some of us have which as you’ll read is very complimentary and helps me make a point.  Rather than call this a woman’s job, it’s really a job that men are horrible at and women quite frankly have to execute for the household. (Yes, many men can do it, I’m generalizing) Although sometimes women   are accused of being big spenders or not careful.  However in most cases and I think you’ll agree, when you look really close, most women are very savvy and educated consumers.

Now when it comes to purchasing commodities for the house, recall how the approach and purchases are made?  Whether it’s back to school, Christmas, Easter, spring, fall, summer or winter, women can be very deliberate in their purchases.

So what do they do?

Quite simply, they are experts at knowing the seasonal aspects of the shopping season.  They know that entry into that season begins with a SALE.  This is a call to LOW seasonal prices as merchants begin their sales to consumers.  This low price starts to move the inventory and get things going.  The smart shoppers have their list early, and they check the trades (newspapers, TV, internet) and sniff out the good deals.  They also know that at the end of the season, if inventory is left, it has to be moved out of the stores.  Enter the “END of SEASON” sales.  You see them every season.  Christmas is probably the best known, but all seasons and holidays have a clearance sale at the end.  Smart shoppers again take advantage of this too as they round out their seasons.

Commodity and precious metal investors and speculators should take a cue from above and try to improve their shopping skills.  One would go about it simply by keeping track a little more about the seasonal aspects that commodities have as they have their seasons also.  For instance, this is the time of the year that Oil, Gas and Gold and Silver have their seasonal rise as demand usually comes into the market this time of the year.

So shoppers, get your scissors out while we review where the deals are:

First up tonight is the Natural Gas market.  There’s been a huge position taken in natural gas via the ETF called United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG).  This buildup of volume has been gathering since May of this year and picked up heavy in June and July.  As we can see by the seasonal chart below, the participants are anticipating a run up in Nat Gas as this chart suggests that the best rallies come this time of year.  For Nat Gas, weather is a huge factor and it is no coincidence the chart reflects the hurricane season for the United States.   So let’s look and see where we are with price.

Natural Gas Trends

In early July I wrote an article on the subject of price and the seasonal. I suggested then that August might be a more appropriate time as the inventory overhang in Nat Gas is not small and in this environment, you always hear about the new discoveries.  I’ve also discussed in an article last week the pros and cons……….well, actually, just the cons as I see them in using UNG as a vehicle to invest in Nat Gas.   We can see that
UNG has in fact drifted lower into the end of June and into July, and now seems to be

UNG Seasonal Trends

trying to make a seasonal turn.  And look at Nat Gas.  It seems to be doing the same.  But there is another important aspect of these two charts.  If commodities weren’t speculative enough, how about UNG ?  IF we look at Nat Gas, it indeed has been a bear market.  It’s gone from about 14 to 4.  That’s a 72% drop.  And now a quick glance at UNG and the drop is even greater at 80%.  More interesting is the fact that Natural Gas has rallied from the $3.20 area to $4.07.
That’s a 21% percent gain from the lows.  How has UNG fared?  They’ve gained 11%.  The question becomes how well will UNG track Nat Gas?  To get to the crux of the discussion, the question is this.  Is there a vehicle that can FOLLOW SPOT NAT GAS prices?  If you Google “Gold, Crude Oil or Natural Gas” or check the archives on this website, you can read the full details of what I researched on UNG.

In an earlier report in June, “What’s up with Natural Gas,” I tackled a similar question.  What is a good vehicle one might use to play Natural Gas?
In that example I used a company called Chesapeake Energy where I suggested might make not necessarily a good proxy for Nat Gas, but a way to participate should there be a Nat Gas rally.  At the time the stock was trading at 19.64. Its moved almost to the 25 area.
The purpose is to not try to sell you on this particular company, but as an example suggesting you might want to do research so as to carefully choose your Nat Gas vehicle (no pun intended!).  As you can see,  this stock seems to have taken off right at the seasonal trend change, i.e.; July.   It’s had a 33% run from its bottom.

CHK Trading

The bottom line is this:
If you want to invest in Natural Gas and play its seasonal run, make sure you have researched and looked at the various ways to play it.  A company will obviously have more POTENTIAL problems that can occur.  But it also for a number of reasons could rise in price EVEN if Nat Gas doesn’t.  In Nat Gas, price is the only factor.  Keep that in mind.  There are a lot of companies in this industry whose stock is NOT going up this time of year.  So when you play the natural gas seasonal,  make sure of your investment vehicle.  Seasonally, if there is to be a rally, it’s usually now. Depending on its strength will depend on how long the rally will last.

Crude Oil

On the chart below, the crude oil shopping season has been under way since last February according to the seasonal chart.  The crude oil chart has also been reflecting the same thing.  In fact we are nearing the seasonal (AVERAGE) end of the shopping season.  Prices on average usually peak at the end of September.  I say usually because in a STRONG DEMAND or geopolitical year or any year you want to call it, Crude oil can rally right into the end of the year.

So a commodity player who is a smart shopper looks for crude at the end of the winter months and is one who on average (in this example) would be looking to rid themselves of Crude or at least LIGHTEN up the position if one sees price weakness as the fall months arrive.

If everything played out just right, a smart shopper would be slowly phasing over from Crude Oil to Natural Gas at this time of the year.  However, remember, each year has their own peculiarities and with the way the markets of today are rigged (pun intended) one has to take a careful approach and be cognizant that not every seasonal plays out.  Because when a contra-seasonal move develops, price can be crushed.  That’s when seasonal players are on the rally side, and the DEMAND for the year doesn’t materialize and a selloff develops. The seasonal longs look to exit and there’s NO ONE to buy.  It can and does happen.

Crude Oil Seasonality

That is why one must always employ stops.  When you’re in the strongest part of the year and your commodity is NOT responding it’s already telling you something.  For what ever reason it’s weak when it shouldn’t be.  I don’t know about you, but that’s about all it takes from me to clear my position and possibly even look for an ETF that bets on the downside.  Ironically, the money in markets is only made at the hardest times.  It’s tuff to exit crude positions of your favorite stocks when crude has doubled.  Smart shoppers know not only when to buy, they also know when to sell at least SOME of their commodities.

The chart on the left below is an ETF type called OIL.  The one on the right is called DXO. The one on the right is supposed to return double of crude oil price increases.  It bottomed at the $1.75 area and went to $5 so it’s doing its job of keeping ahead, but not doubling. On the left hand chart the return is less.  This vehicle description is:

The investment is linked to the performance of the Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Return Index and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contacts comprising the index plus the Treasury Bill rate of interest that could be earned on funds committed to the trading of the underlying contracts. The index is derived from the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contract traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The fund is non-diversified

Crude Oil USO Trend

So while the crude oil season peaks in the fall do the charts say we should be selling?  NOT if they still look like this. And that is a MAJOR key on how to play it.  Since we don’t know the exact lows and where they will be, if the CHART and PRICE is strong you might LET IT RUN until it stops going up.  Then you take some profits.   Right now, the 50 day has crossed over the 200 day, price is making new highs. The chart is in strong condition. It’s still in an uptrend. Now as far as DXO goes (chart on the right), this is and can be a quick mover down too as it is a DOUBLE mover.  Research in price performance indicates these types of stocks require good timing.  Each play requires a strategy and you should have one for each investment you do. I am using these two stocks as illustrative and you should not construe this example as a buy recommendation.

The bottom line is:  In crude the shopping season on average will take a dip from sometime in the fall and then usually bottoms out in mid to late winder. Smart shoppers do there shopping around that time of the year. Right now the smart shopper is one who might choose to look at and review each investment in their portfolio or accounts of crude oil related investments and maybe rid a few losers, and trim a few shares off of the great gainers always looking to rebalance you holdings.

Gold

How about gold and its performance over the last decade? Are the bulls going to finally have their way?  Well from a timing standpoint, GOLD is certainly at bat and at the PLATE.  I think the only thing that can stop gold from hitting a home run is the pitcher.  He’s a veteran from the old team……..what’s their name? Ummm.  Oh yea.  The Washington Federals, that’s their name.  The FEDS for short.  From what I hear the pitcher has an arsenal.  When confronted, he can deliver the following:  A fast ball, a curve, a slider, and when things get tough, a knuckle ball and a fork ball.  When none of those work, he throws his strikeout pitch.  THE SCREW BALL.  Gets em every time.  (LOL – little humor there.)

Gold Seasonality

In gold we see a market that is ripe for a seasonal move. The month of September on average produces the sharpest rallies and many a low has been set during this timeframe.  The Sept thru February timeframe is gold’s season and the shopping season usually starts near labor day but in all honesty, can be as late as October and even November sometimes.  That is why it is so important to know when big trends start.  It is the key to being successful in speculating in gold.  Long termers can still benefit from this because by following the seasonal, he/she will know the optimum times to buy.

In gold, using GLD as an ETF vehicle, we can see throughout this year it has traded in a very narrow band and has spent the year trying to reach and get above 100.  In fact it has spent 17 months trying to breach the 1000 area.  Is this going to be the time?  Odds favor this time of year.  But will it ?  Sometimes it is best to allow the market you’re following to just make a new high and breakout before jumping in head first.  One key will be the US Dollar and how it performs.

Gold Seasonal Trends for GLD

From a pure investment/speculation perspective, gold has a lot going for it. It’s actually less volatile than the oil and gas markets, and gold can also be stored as a means of capital preservation.  The beginning of petroleum products came as a substitute for ………….WHALE BLUBBER.   The beginning of gold was pretty much at the dawn of civilization. By then, a standard means of barter was needed and gold was established.  It has held the test of time. There could new methods of energy that will be invented in the future that will modernize the world, and make fossil fuels no longer required for mass transportation.  But there will never be a NEW real global means of re-inventing money in substitute for gold.  We know that because we are going through the results of invented money now in the global community.  Taint working !

Conclusions

Each of these commodities have their seasonal ebb and flow.  Each have various price movements, sometimes strong, sometimes weak.  While these commodities usually rise and fall together, we have seen today that there are slight difference.  Crude is usually a buy in late winter early spring.  GOLD is usually a SELL right before that,  in early February.  Crude is now approaching the end of its seasonal strength, while gold and Nat Gas is just starting.  On final word on Nat Gas.  I went back and looked at some charts. To tell you the truth, I’ve found that the hurricane season accounts for a lot of Nat Gas rallies.  So we are the season, but of all three,  Nat Gas has the lowest ODDS on average of making a good buck. It’s rally season is very short, and the timing must be perfect.

Crude on the other hand, has a much better “season” to it but one should be aware that the gains for the year on average come to an end near the end of September.

Gold’s season arrives more often than not around this time of year, but can be known to have a dip in the October time frame, and sometimes it wait’s that long for the rally to even begin.  Regardless of that fact, one should start scaling in when the charts begin a rallying mode.  Gold’s chart certainly has powder keg written on it above 1075-1100.  It says :  CAUTION: DO NOT TRADE OVER $1100 PER OZ. CONTENTS CAN IGNITE AND DOUBLE.

Should a gold move develop the world will have to ADJUST to triple digit gold.  There are a lot of people in who’s interest it would be to not see that.  Sometimes it almost seems like the price is always halted near this level……..like for the last 17 months.  One of these times a match will go near that powder keg and when it does it has the potential to change things as we know them forever.  It’s that serious folks.  Regardless of whether it’s up or down, make sure you know when the next TREND change occurs. If you don’t do like the smart shopper would do and call on someone for assistance with your purchase.

As we have seen each of these commodities have a “season” if you will.  If you’re a smart shopper, you will become familiar with these seasons and when there are sales and when the optimum time to buy them occurs.

To receive my Free Weekly Trading Reports please visit: www.TechnicalCommodityTrader.com

May you all prosper
Bill

Bill Downey is an investor/speculator in the stock and commodity markets. He does freelance writing about various markets for clients and for himself as well as technical analysis of the Gold and Silver markets.

Does Gold Always Go Up in Recessions and Depressions?

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I have often read, “Gold always goes up in recessions and depressions.” Is it true? Should you own gold because you think the economy is tanking? Whenever we hear some claim like this, we always do the same thing: We look at the data.

The first thing to point out is that gold did not make a nickel of U.S. money for anyone in any of the recessions and depressions from 1792, when the gold-based dollar was adopted, through 1969, a period of 177 years. Well, to be precise, there was a change in the valuation in 1900, when Congress changed the dollar’s value from 24.75 grains of gold, the amount established in 1792, to 23.22 grains, a devaluation of just six percent total over 108 years. The government did raise the fixed price from $20.67/oz. to $35/oz. in 1934, but that action occurred during an economic expansion, not during the Depression. In 1968, gold finally began trading away from the government’s fixed price. Even then, it slipped to a lower price of $34.95 on January 16 and 19, 1970. So the idea that gold always goes up in recessions and depressions is already shown to be wrong. It did not go up in terms of dollars in any of the (estimated) 35 recessions or three depressions during that period.

What almost always does happen during economic contractions is that the value of whatever people use as money goes up as prices for goods and services fall. When gold is used as money, its value in terms of goods and services goes up. But gold can’t go up in dollar terms when gold and dollars are equated. So no one “makes money” holding gold under these conditions. It is a fine point: What tends to go up relative to goods and services during economic contractions is money, and when gold is officially money, that’s how it behaves. What we want to know is how gold behaves in recessions and depressions when it is not officially accepted as money.

Many gold bugs say that because gold was a good investment during the Great Depression, it is a “deflation hedge.” We addressed this topic in At the Crest of a Tidal Wave (1995, p.357) and Conquer the Crash (2002, pp. 208-209). At the time, government fixed gold’s price, so it didn’t go up or down relative to dollars. Gold was a haven during that time, the same as the dollar was, since they were equated by law. But gold served as a haven because its price was fixed while everything else was crashing in price during the period of deflation. Gold bugs like to claim that gold would have gone up during that period had it not been fixed, but the crashing dollar prices for all other things suggest that in a free market gold, too, would have fallen. It would have fallen, however, from a higher level given the inflation of 1914-1929 following the creation of the Fed. So gold became worth more in dollar terms than it was in 1913, which is why it began flowing out of the country. In 1934, the government finally recognized the new reality by raising gold’s fixed price. Since 1970, markets have been in a large version of 1914-1930, except that gold has been allowed to float, so we can clearly see its inflation-related, pre-depression gains.

Observe that gold’s price remained the same for a Fibonacci 21 years after the Fed was created in 1913; it was revalued in 1934. [Ed. Note: For a full chapter on Fibonacci time considerations for gold, download the 40-page Gold and Silver eBook.] Then it held that value for 35 (a Fibonacci 34 + 1) years, through 1969. So aside from the revaluation of 1934, the inability to make money holding gold during recessions, depressions, or any time at all save for the day of the revaluation in 1934 held fast for 56 (a Fibonacci 55 + 1) years following the creation of the Fed. So even after Congress created the central bank, no one made money holding gold in a recession or depression for two generations.

In 1970, things changed dramatically. Investors lost interest in stocks and preferred owning gold instead, for a period of ten years. The same change occurred again in 2001, and so far it has lasted seven years. But, as we will see, recession had nothing to do with either of these periods of explosive price gain in the precious metals.

The period of time one chooses to collect data can make a huge difference to the outcome of a statistical study. If we were to show the entire track record from 1792, gold would show almost no movement on average during economic contractions. If we were to take only 1969 to the present, it would show much more fluctuation. To give a fairly balanced picture, combining some history with the entire modern, wild-gold era, I asked my colleague Dave Allman to compile statistics beginning at the end of World War II. This is what most economists do, because they believe “modern finance” began at that time and that things have been “normal” since then. It’s also when many data series begin. So our study fits the norm that most economists use. It also provides results entirely from the Fed era, making it relevant to current structural conditions.

[Ed. note: To study the six tables revealing gold's performance record vs. stocks and T-notes since WWII, download the 40-page Gold and Silver eBook.]

Table 1 shows the performance of gold during the 11 officially recognized recessions beginning in 1945. Although one could make a case for different start times, we took the 15th of the starting month and the 15th of the ending month as times to record the price of gold. The results speak for themselves. Even though it is accepted throughout most of the gold-bug community that gold rises in bad economic times, Table 1 shows that such is not the case.

The only reason that the average gain for gold shows a positive number at all is that gold rose significantly during one of these recessions, that of 11/73-3/75. The average gain for all ten of the other recessions is 0.16 percent, almost exactly zero. The median for all 11 recessions is also zero. If we omit the five recessions during which the price of gold was fixed, the median gain is 3.09 percent.

For long-term forecasts and more in-depth, historical analysis for precious metals, including the six revealing tables mentioned in this article, Download Prechter’s FREE 40-page eBook on Gold and Silver.

The GDX to GLD ratio chart

The GDX to GLD ratio chart shows the relationship of gold mining stocks to the price of gold. As this goes lower, gold stocks are underperforming gold medal. This is bearish for gold miners.

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