The Pragmatic Capitalist Over the course of the last year we have witnessed one of the greatest mean reversions in the history of markets.  And it hasn’t been unique to the equity markets.  In fact, many of the moves in other markets have been even more remarkable than the oft cited 70% rally in equities.  As prices have surged we have seen...

CalculatedRisk From the Financial Times: China to lose ally against US trade hawks Myron Brilliant, senior vice-president for international affairs, who has previously helped to protect Beijing from hawkish trade policies, told the Financial Times: “I don’t think the Chinese government can count on the American business community to be able...

The Market Ticker …. before our citizens – and government – wake up? If you remember in October of 2008 I put forward the following: The Truth is that we now require about $5 of debt to generate $1 of GDP. The Truth is that the reason you were not asked to approve $700 billion to capitalize 10 new banks, thereby creating seven...

Last week was nothing special as stock market continued to drift higher on light volume and the Volatility Index (VIX) reaching a new multi year low. This mix of higher prices on light volume, multi year lows in the VIX and an overbought market paints a clear picture to a market technician – Be Ready for a Pullback! Last Wednesday I sent out a...

Zero hedge Uformula of RCS Investments Bullish News Manufacturing continues to show strength with very strong Empire/Philly Manufacturing surveys.  This sector may jump start the economy. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-march-empire-state-index-229-vs-249-feb-2010-03-15?reflink=MW_news_stmp http://www.marketwatch.com/story/factories-expand-in-philly-region-for-7th-month-2010-03-18?reflink=MW_news_stmp Weekly...

Courtesy of Bill Luby at Vix and More Truthfully, I have not surveyed our ursine friends this morning, so I really have no idea if they are emboldened by the low CBOE equity put to call ratio (CPCE), but they should be. My preferred way of looking at the equity put to call ratio involves using an exponential 10 day moving average (EMA) as a smoothing...

Gold Scents Yesterday was the 28th day of the rally out of the February 5th bottom. We are now in the trading band for the daily cycle in stocks to bottom. (The cycle rarely lasts much longer than 35-40 days.) So like I said in my last post we are due for a short breather any time now. The consensus seems to be that the market will hang in till...

Courtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock/Business Insider The FHA is no longer the modest agency that helped make homes more affordable to generations of Americans. It has issued hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgages in the last two years. It’s support for the housing market is expected to redouble once again, growing to $1.5 trillion...

SOMX recently announced the FDA has approved the New Drug Application (NDA) for Silenor (doxepin) for the treatment of insomnia characterized by difficulty with sleep maintenance. SOMX shares more than doubled on the news. As a result of the NDA approval for Silenor, SOMX will be required to make a $1.0 million milestone payment to its licensor...

The Market Ticker Remember, Bernanke said under questioning the other day that “they hid it” in response to a question about whether or not The Fed knew about the Lehman “105″ repo arrangements, which appear to have been structured to intentionally mislead the public (and investors) about its liquidity position. But in the...

Courtesy of HCPG We had on watch-list at the 200SMA at 38. Stock based right on the number (not what you want if you are looking for support reversal) broke through but hit secondary support and found footing. Entry is on a lift-off from that area (37.55-37.64 average fills) for a day-trade back into primary support as a target (38) for at least...

Courtesy of SellPuts Please refer to my article from last night if you would like background information on why we saw a VIX pop today. Renewed uncertainty over the Greece bailout sent equities down and the Chicago Volatility Index (VIX) skyward. The VIX was up 5% in early morning trading, though has settled up around 3% as of 3:30 est. Historically...

By Bud Conrad, Editor, The Casey Report On March 3, I heard John Taylor over lunch at the San Francisco Federal Reserve. In his talk he reviewed the government’s bailouts and their effects on our economy. If you aren’t familiar with Taylor, he co-authored, along with Bob Hall, the macroeconomics textbook most widely used these days. In addition,...

Tim Iacono The defense of monetary policy during the gestation years of the housing bubble was reiterated (yet again) yesterday by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan in a paper(.pdf) titled “The Crisis” that is being presented today at the Brookings Institution. While the 48 pages of text and the 18 page appendix await attention that they...

Zero Hedge Federated Investors’ David Tice has a thing or two to say about the rally – “We’ve been the beneficiary of a massive credit bubble that we’ve not yet worked off the excesses… This secular bear market will not bottom until we get back until we get back below book value.” In a portion of the interview...