Think back to the fall of 2007. The deflationary “liquidity crunch” that over the next year-and-a-half cuts the DJIA in half, decimates commodities, real estate and world markets is only starting. Almost no one believes that the crash is coming — to a large degree, because everyone is convinced that...

Tyler Durden Is there just a little trepidation in Jan Hatzius’ typing as he reconfirms his +275,000 Friday NFP Target? Downside Surprise Calls Private-Sector Hiring into Question BOTTOM LINE: ADP report weaker than expected, showing a decline of 23k in March and raising questions about whether private-sector hiring has truly begun. KEY...

Gregory White of Money Game The mortgage backed security (MBS) purchase program began in earnest on March 18, 2009, when Fed Chairman Bernanke announced an expansion of the program to the size limit of $1.25 trillion. The result of that program saw the S&P 500 rise 55.08% between March 18 and today (March 31, 2010), its end. What will the...

By Sellputs March has proven to be another paint drying, low volume churn of a month. All the markets have done this month are trade higher in a zombie like fashion. This alerts me inflation could be slowly catching hold and thus the market could be setting up for a fast break. Not sure if the break is going to be up or down, but the price action/volume...

by Tyler Durden For those wondering what caused the market to take a beating at 9:42 AM Eastern, it was the 3 minute advance release of the Chicago PMI to subscribers (a topic we have discussed previously). The index came out for the general mort consumption at 9:45 AM, when the bulk of the loss had already taken place. As for the actual data, add...

T3Live The ADP report came out this morning, and while we were expecting an increase in private sector jobs, we instead lost. The report will likely pour some water on the fire, and it will be important to note Friday’s broader employment report. The area to keep hold of for bulls is around the 1162 area. A break of this area would take us lower...

The Market Ticker Well now this is interesting. ADP’s private employment report came in negative, down 23,000.  That wasn’t expected, and it sent the futures down a bit when released. The pump monkeys have been telling us for the last month that we would see not only the census hiring this month (which we will) but that in addition private,...

CalculatedRisk The MBA reports: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. … “Purchase applications have increased over the past month, and are now at their highest...

“Your cheating chart will tell on you.” Hank Williams may not have known about Elliott waves, but he did know when a story doesn’t add up. Such is the case with the nominal rise of the Dow Jones Industrials from 2000 to 2007. In the language of country music, this stock index has...

Gold has had some dramatic moves in the last eighteen months and we expect it will have some equally dramatic moves in the future, but not right now. Click Here To View Adam’s Gold Video While I recognize that gold is one of the few commodity markets that people are really passionate about; the purpose of this article is not to take...

The Pragmatic Capitalist When it comes to equity analysts Teun Draaisma is a must-read.  The European equity analyst famously called for investors to sell stocks in June 2007 when the markets were flashing a “full house sell” signal. He then flipped bullish in November of 2008 as the markets were pricing in a much more severe situation than...

Tim Iacono Once again, data from the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index is providing a confusing picture of what’s happening to U.S. home prices and, once again, the Standard & Poor’s website is incapable of handling the 9AM EST traffic on the last Tuesday of the month. From accounts like this report at MarketWatch, it looks like seasonally...

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker Yahoo has jumped the shark with publishing “1,300″ on the S&P by the end of the year, a 17% annual increase: “The bears have been consistently wrong throughout this whole rally,” Altucher tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. “If you followed the bears’ advice...

Clusterstock Here it is in all its glory: Tim Geithner’s most-excellent trade. By dumping its stake in Citigroup, The Treasury is expected to net some $8 billion on behalf of the taxpayer. (Though, it turns out, Geithner would have made more selling in August)