MISH David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley Sees 5.5% Note as U.S. Faces Deficits. If Morgan Stanley is right, the best sale of U.S. Treasuries for 2010 may be the short sale. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes will climb about 40 percent to 5.5 percent, the biggest annual increase since 1999, according to David Greenlaw, chief...

The Mess That Greenspan Made Sometimes, when you read something that was uttered by some official at a big bank, it makes you want to lash out and strike somebody, preferably the person that made the comment. But, unfortunately, that’s almost always impossible. Such was the case when Bank of America spokesman Rick Simon appeared in this AP story...

CalculatedRisk Still waiting for the data … From S&P: “The turn-around in home prices seen in the Spring and Summer has faded with only seven of the 20 cities seeing month-to-month gains, although all 20 continue to show improvements on a year-over-year basis. All in all, this report should be described as flat.” says David M. Blitzer,...

AC Investor ( click to enlarge ) OCNF is bouncing off lows that were set last week and could be ready to move much higher. Resistance is $1.01, which reflects Monday’s high of the day. Looking at the daily chart, I see a bullish divergence signal as the stock makes lower lows in price, while stochastics climb out of oversold conditions with higher...

Vincent Fernando of Money Game This Bloomberg graphic taken from The Research Puzzle gives a nice snapshot of where treasury yields have gone over the last two decades. Yields for different maturities of U.S. treasuries are shown by each color, with 30-year bonds in light green. First, it’s clear that the longest-term 30-year bonds have rarely...

Pej Hamidi of T3Live.com The desk I run is an Institutional LongShort Equity desk which tries to maintain a “market neutral” book. This does not mean “buy 1000 shares of IBM and 10 puts”. What market neutrality means is that one need not be concerned about the overall direction of the market, as momentum traders are, but rather have long positions...

MISH Bloomberg is reporting Tanker Glut Signals 25% Drop on 26-Mile Line of Ships. A 26-mile-long line of idled oil tankers, enough to blockade the English Channel, may signal a 25 percent slump in freight rates next year. The ships will unload 26 percent of the crude and oil products they are storing in six months, adding to vessel supply and pushing...

Citigroup spiked in the final hour of trading on Monday. Today on Fast Money there were mixed feelings on how Citi will act in 2010. We are in the camp that C should be an easy double in the next 12 months. Citi is now testing the 10 day moving average currently at $3.40. If Citi can close over this level it would be very bullish and signal a short...

Joe Weisenthal and Kamelia Angelova of Clusterstock Last week the Commerce Department announced that in Q3 GDP had been revised down to 2.2% growth after first clocking in at a brisk 3.8%. The number was the latest blow to those who are still holding out hopes of a V-shaped recovery. Not only was the headline number disappointing, but a deeper drill-down...

The Mess That Greenspan Made On ABC’s This Week yesterday, Economist Paul Krugman noted there is a “reasonably high chance” that the economy will contract again late next year and, of course, more stimulus would go a long way in either preventing that from happening or minimizing its impact. It’s reasonable to think that, when...

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist As we enter the new year investors will be wise to focus on the risks of 2009.  Although the crisis appears long behind us it’s important to keep an eye on the bigger picture.  Little has changed in terms of the structure of our global economy therefore the risks remain largely the same.  Let’s take a moment...

CalculatedRisk Since it has been a while … Click on graph for larger image in new window. The first graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990. The dashed line is the closing price today. The S&P 500 was first at this level in April 1998; over 11 1/2 years ago. The S&P 500 is up 67% from the bottom (451 points), and still off 28% from...

Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider Raymond James strategist Jeff Saut is doing the wise thing and taking another week fo relax with family — we advise it — but in a brief note he warns of the breakdown in bonds. —- Indeed, we have been unabashedly bullish on most asset classes since March 2, 2009, although we have turned cautious a...

Crude oil’s rise from 68.59 extended further to as high as 78.68 so far. The strong break of 61.8% retracement of 82.0 to 68.58 at 76.87 suggests that choppy fall from 82.0 has completed. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise could be seen to to retest 82.0. On the downside, below 76.29 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral...

Scott Redler of T3Live.com Here are three key charts to follow for the coming week. I have written much about the need for Goldman to break higher in order to lead the financials and the broader markets higher. Here is the annotated GS chart with the important levels: AAPL has been one of the market’s leaders. We are now in new all-time high...