CRE: Higher Vacancy Rates, Lower Rents in San Diego, Orange County and Las Vegas

by CalculatedRisk

Voit released quarterly reports today for CRE in Las Vegas, San Diego and Orange County.

The reports show the vacancy rates are up and lease rates falling. It also shows new construction has slowed sharply. Here are a couple of graphs for Orange County and San Diego. We are seeing a similar pattern nationwide, although new construction in these areas probably slowed earlier than most of the country.

O.C. Office Vacancy Rate and New Construction
Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the annual Orange County office vacancy rate and new construction since 1988. See Voit report for more.

In 2007 the rapid increase in the vacancy rate was due to a huge increase in new space combined with negative absorption as a number of Orange County financial companies (like New Century) went under. New construction has almost stopped, but the net absorption rate is still negative, so the vacancy rate is still rising.

Because of the concentration of subprime lenders in Orange County, the office space market was hit earlier than other areas of the country.

From the Voit report:

Net absorption for the county posted a negative 672,880 square feet for the second quarter of 2009, giving the office market a total of 1.5 million square feet of negative absorption for the year.

During the first half of 2009, Orange County has added a total of 171,863 square feet. Over the past three and a half years, over seven million square feet of new construction has been completed in Orange County. … Total space under construction checked in at 166,059 square feet at the end of the second quarter, which is almost half the amount that was under construction this same time last year.
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